South African motorists are bracing for a sharp increase in fuel prices as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East send shockwaves through global oil markets. The recent escalation – marked by U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran’s potential retaliation – has already triggered a spike in crude oil prices, with Brent crude climbing toward $130 (R2,351) per barrel in worst-case projections.
The conflict between Israel and Iran, now intensified by U.S. military involvement, has disrupted the fragile balance in global energy supply. Iran, a major oil producer, exports around 3 million barrels per day. While countries like Saudi Arabia could technically offset this, the real concern lies in the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz – a critical maritime chokepoint through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows.
If Iran retaliates by targeting regional energy infrastructure or mining the Strait, analysts warn that oil prices could skyrocket, pushing global inflation higher and triggering economic instability.
The Central Energy Fund (CEF) had already forecast petrol price hikes of 35 to 38 cents per litre for July 2025, with diesel expected to rise by 56 to 58 cents per litre. These estimates were based on data before the U.S. strikes. With Brent crude now surging and the rand showing signs of weakness against the dollar, the actual increases could be significantly higher.
South Africa, which imports most of its oil from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, is not directly dependent on Iranian oil. However, the global nature of oil pricing means that any disruption in supply affects local prices. The weakening rand further compounds the issue, making imported fuel even more expensive.
Higher fuel prices don’t just hit motorists – they ripple through the entire economy. Transport costs rise, food prices follow, and inflationary pressure builds. This could derail expectations of interest rate cuts, as the South African Reserve Bank may be forced to hold or even hike rates to contain inflation.
Sectors like travel, logistics, and consumer goods are particularly vulnerable. Tech companies reliant on global supply chains may also feel the pinch as shipping and freight costs climb.
For South Africa’s tech ecosystem, rising fuel prices could lead to increased operational costs, especially for startups and SMEs that rely on delivery services or imported hardware. Consumers may also tighten their belts, reducing discretionary spending on gadgets and digital services.
However, this could also accelerate the shift toward remote work, digital platforms, and energy-efficient technologies – offering opportunities for innovation in green tech, fintech, and mobility solutions.
